This may be the start of the world’s next financial crisis

China’s stock markets continued a seemingly uncontrolled drop on Monday, pulling everything from Asia stock exchanges to commodities down further with them. Things were so bad that even China’s normally boosterish state-run media dubbed the day “Black Monday.” Despite a huge amount of government stimulus, it seems investors have lost faith in China’s stocks and are now focused on an impossible to answer question: how bad will China’s economic slowdown be?

The Shanghai Stock Exchange had fallen 8.8% by early afternoon on Monday, breaking through the 3,500 level at which the government has been supporting the market. The market closed at 3,210.8—a drop of 8.5%.

Japan’s Topix Index was down over 5% by early Monday afternoon, a “correction” of 10% from the index’s Aug. 12 high. At close, it hit 1,480.87, marking a drop of 5.9% since opening.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index officially entered “bear market” territory on August 20 and has continued to fall. It was down 4.6% midday in Hong Kong, and closed down 5.05%:

Taiwan’s stock exchange, like Hong Kong’s, entered bear market territory August 20, and slid another 4.8% by the market’s close:

In fact, across Asia, investors were selling stocks. The Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index was closed at a drop of 4.04%, and Mumbai’s Sensex Index was down 4.55% in afternoon trading . US stock markets followed Asia’s down late last week, and today’s opening in New York is expected to be brutal.

Concerns about China’s economic future and falling demand is also causing commodity prices to collapse. The price of Brent crude fell below the $45 mark on Monday for the first time since March of 2009:

The price of copper trading on the London Metals Exchange fell to a six-year low last week, dropping 2% overall, and is expected to fall lower when markets open in London:

The situation, particularly as the US Federal Reserve is expected to begin a monetary tightening phase, is evoking comparisons to the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 2008 crisis sparked by the US subprime lending, and even the 1987 market crash. There’s also a growing sense that these market drops are going to be impossible to control.

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Usain Bolt’s epic performance in the World Championship 100-meter final

Some say Usain Bolt is the fastest man to ever live. At the very least, he's the most accomplished sprinter in world history, having dominated the 100-meter race for the better part of a decade. But the Jamaican "Lightning Bolt" hasn't been his usual supersonic self as of late after some time away from the sport and a series of injuries allowed American Justin Gatlin to overtake him as the world's best 100-m runner (Gatlin was banned from the sport for doping from 2006 until 2010.)

But that has ended.

Bolt came from behind to oust Gatlin and win the 100-m final at the World Championships in Beijing today (Aug. 23). The winning time of 9.79 seconds was a far cry from Bolt's record of 9.58, but it was still a brilliant performance. Bolt broke slowly before picking up speed and edging Gatlin by a nose.

Gatlin received the silver medal, while American Trayvon Bromell and Canadian Andre de Grasse tied for bronze at 9.92 seconds. The rivalry between Bolt and Gatlin will intensify as we head to the 2016 Summer Olympics in Brazil, but for now, The Bolt is back on top.

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To succeed in investment banking, just switch off all feelings and emotions

“What do you do?” is often one of the first questions you ask when meeting someone new. That’s because, for most people, identity is inextricably tied to work. Professionals, in particular, draw heavily on their work for a sense of identity—think of doctors, scientists, or high-level executives.

And then there are investment bankers.

“For them, nothing matters,” says Maxine Robertson of Queen Mary University of London. “They literally don’t have a self—it is bypassed, put to one side.” This attitude is so unique, and so extreme, that Robertson and fellow researchers invented a new term to describe it.

In a paper published in the latest issue of the journal, Organization Studies, Robertson and co-author Mats Alvesson of Lund University in Sweden dub it “teflonic identity maneuvering.” That is, investment bankers actively avoid adopting any sort of identity associated with their work—in other words, nothing sticks.

Nowhere man (and woman)

That conclusion comes from a series of interviews with senior bankers in London. “Despite extensive and repeated interviews with each, there was an absence of a clear or rich story of identity,” the professors write. “Meaningfulness, emotions, and personal investment in work values were not salient in their career histories.”

There is money, of course.

It’s not surprising that professionals in the sector say that they’re in it for the money, Robertson tells Quartz. But what sets investment bankers apart is that they don’t use money to convey special status or establish a unique personal identity. Instead, they buy the same expensive suits and accessories as their colleagues, in order to blend in and draw attention away from themselves. Remind you of something?

Living a fantasy

In the research, bankers suggested that they were postponing their identities rather than negating them. They spoke of vague, general plans for an “expansive and independent life” in the future, after they left banking. But Robertson suspects this might be “fantasy”—some talked about being able to provide for their families when they didn’t even have a partner at the time.

There are also some caveats. The researchers only interviewed six bankers, although they spoke with each a dozen times over a two-year period. Despite the small sample, the fact that each subject independently showed the same unusually detached attitude towards identity is significant. (And this is hardly the only study to lay bare thetoxic culture of big investment banks.) That said, the subjects were all relatively senior bankers with long tenures in the industry, suggesting that these characteristics may apply only to those who commit to investment banking for the long term.

What is it about banks that attract the smart and ambitious only to transform them into amoral automatons in expensive suits? Robertson reckons that it might be the peculiar mix of the highly specialized expertise and almost no job security.

“People can’t live like that, so you become like this,” she says. “It seems odd for the bankers, and it can’t be healthy for the organization.” Indeed, would the endless and expensive cycle of misbehevior at big banks be reduced if employees were encouraged to seek meaning beyond money alone?

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China’s economy is in very bad shape

China's stock markets sank sharply today (Aug. 21), dragging Asian stock markets lower and setting the stage for another grim day in Europe and the US.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.3%, and briefly dipped below the 3,500 level at which the government has stepped in previously to prop the market up. The index fell more than 11% during the week. Despite more than $1 trillion worth of government support measures, stocks have not really stabilized since they started stumbling in June.

One trigger for today's drop was the independent "flash" manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), a measure of manufacturing conditions. The index fell to its lowest level since 2009, spooking investors.

The number was a nasty surprise. But the problem that has dogged China's markets (and the rest of the world) all week isn't just that a long-expected China slowdown is truly emerging. The really spooky thing is that no one has any idea of how bad things in China are going to get. Analysts, investors, consultants, and an entire zoo full of "China bears" have been churning out reports on what a potential Chinese economic slowdown will look like for months, even years.

But now that it is upon us, the dearth of reliable, non-manipulated data coming from China and the opaqueness of its big companies, government, and banks, mean that most of these reports are educated guesswork. And that means no one can say for sure what will happen in the world's second-largest economy. "Uncertainty about China growth is now the main swing factor in markets," Tim Condon, an economist at ING Group in Singapore, told Reuters today.

China's GDP, for example, has long been considered a carefully-managed charade. The country's scarily high bad debts are believed by many bears to be seriously under-reported, although nobody outside of the banks themselves really knows by how much.

That may be why markets reacted so sharply to the "preliminary" PMI figure. This is one of the few independent measures of China's manufacturing growth, compiled by Markit and newly sponsored by Chinese business news outlet Caixin, which recently took over from HSBC. China has an officially generated PMI as well, but that figure nearly always comes in equal to or higher than the Markit figure.

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China’s deadly Tianjin explosions show the limits of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive

The deadly explosions that took place at a warehouse storing dangerous chemicals in Tianjin last week killed over a hundred people, cost billions of dollars, and have raised serious questions about China's industrial safety and emergency preparedness. Local land and waterways may be polluted for years to come.

Even as the government censors online "rumors" and legitimate press reports, Chinese media, including  state-run outlets, have launched in-depth investigations into Ruihai International Logistics, the company that owned the warehouse and specializes in storing all manner of highly toxic chemicals. These reports point to strong political connections between the company and government officials, implying corruption played a huge role in the company's growth and on-going operations.

Xi Jinping's far-reaching anti-corruption drive has ensnared top party officials, curbed massive spending on bribes and reached deep into industries from oil to media to railways over the past two years. But as the Tianjin blasts show, in some places business in China is still being done exactly the same way it was before he took office—the powerfully-connected get favors and special treatment that benefits them and their companies, and the rest of the country pays. 

Ruihai's politically-connected founders

The founders of Ruihai are the son of a former police officer and a former state company executive, state-run Xinhua news agency reported on Aug. 19, based on interviews with the founders. These men are also the only two shareholders of the company, the founders told Xinhua, but they own their stakes in it through other people.

Yu Xuewei, 41, former executive at state-run chemical company Sinochem, holds 55% of Ruihai's shares, though his cousin is listed publicly as the holder of those shares, he told Xinhua. Yu still sits on the board of directors of Tianjin Port Sinochem Dangerous Goods Logistics Co., a subsidiary of Sinochem, as AP reported on Aug. 21.

Dong Shexuan, 34, the son of a former police chief for Tianjin Port, holds 45% of the shares, through schoolmate is the publicly-listed holder. Both the founders and the public holders are in police custody.

The two founders told Xinhua that they used their political connections to win benefits for Ruihai, though neither admitted to paying a bribe. In particular, they say their connections have  helped Ruihai to pass government inspections on handling dangerous chemicals business, including to obtaining  various fire safety, land, environmental and safety certifications, Xinhua reported. Dong told the news agency:

My guanxi [connections] is in police and fire. When we needed a fire inspection, I went to meet with officials at the Tianjin port fire squad. I gave them the files and soon they gave me the appraisal.

[pullquote]My guanxi is in police and fire. [/pullquote]The founders' interviews are somewhat puzzling. Public confessions by detained activists and lawyers have become common in China, but it is highly unusual to see news reports like this as part of an ongoing news investigation.

Ruihai was unlicensed

A company website says Ruihai was established in 2011 and is licensed to transport dangerous goods. It has 70 employees, posts annual revenue of over 30 million yuan ($4.7 million), and can handle about 1 million tons of cargo a year.

Ruihai's warehouse before the blasts.

But according tothe National Company Credit Information System, a company registration website administered by the State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC), Ruihai was established in December 2012. The company was not supposed to handle dangerous chemicals until Tianjin Municipal Transportation Commission, Tianjin's branch of the state's Ministry of Transport, issued a license. Information on the website only shows the title of the license document, and says Ruihai was licensed to handle dangerous chemicals until October 2014.

But a license document  (link in Chinese), which was made public by the Beijing News on Thursday, shows that Ruihai, on a trial basis, was authorized to store nine different dangerous goods at its warehouse only from Apr. 16 to Oct. 16, 2014. Both the title and the end date match online information on the trade group-administered website. The document, dated May 4, 2014, is marked "confidential."

Xinhua's August 19 report confirms the existence of the document and says the company only got another formal license this June, meaning it had been handling dangerous chemicals without any approval  for eight months. It  quotes founder Yu:

"After the first license expired, we applied for an extension. We did not cease operation because we did not think it was a problem. Many other companies have continued working without a license," said Yu Xuejun.

Even Ruihai's official license may be illegal. Chinese laws say business shouldn't be licensed to handle dangerous chemicals until they go through safety assessments and complete inspections. Ruihai's safety assessment was only completed in August 2014, the Beijing News reported—that's after Tianjin authorities trial approval in May.[pullquote]Many other companies have continued working without a license.[/pullquote]

Calls made by Quartz to Ruihai were not returned.

Safety regulations were ignored

The August 2014 safety assessment report allows Ruihai to store dangerous chemicals in their warehouse a mere 560 meters away from a nearby housing estate, despite Chinese regulations consider any distance less than 1,000 meters is unsafe, Xinhua reported on August 19.

“The first company said it was too close to residential buildings and violated the regulations, so we wouldn’t pass,” Dong told Xinhua.“Then we found another company who got us the documents we needed.” So far the safety assessment report hasn't been made public by authorities, Xinhua reported in a more detailed article in Chinese on August 19.

Tianjin Zhongbin Haishen is the safety evaluation company who examined Ruihai. The company's public liaison is the National Engineering Research Center for Fire Protection, which is supervised by the Ministry of Public Security, according to SAIC's company registration website.

Residents demand compensation for damage to their homes after the Tianjin blasts.

An environmental-impact report ordered by the Tianjin Environmental Protection Bureau in December 2013 said a survey of local residents found that 100% of responders agreed that Ruihai should go ahead with the construction of a warehouse for containing dangerous chemicals in the area, Xinhua reported. Some residents interviewed by the news agency said they had never seen such a survey, nor had they even known of the existence of a nearby chemical warehouse before the blasts.

A "fat meat"

Tianjin is the closest port to Beijing, and accounted for 70% (link in Chinese) of the dangerous goods shipments into China's largest city last year. But only three logistic companies are licensed to handle nine categories of dangerous chemicals. Ruihai is the only private company among them, Chinese media has reported.

There are about 40 logistics companies in port area. Others also have tried to get licensed to handle chemicals, but none has got an approval, the Beijing News noted.

One person in charge of a local logistic firm told the newspaper that the business of dangerous chemicals storage is "fat meat"— an industry where monopolies mean it is two or three times more profitable than ordinary goods shipment.

Ten Ruihai executives, including Yu and Dong, were detained soon after the blasts occurred. A week after the blasts, China's top official on work safety, Yang Dongliang,was also taken into custody for “suspected violations of party discipline and the law”— a standard euphemism for corruption. Until one day before his arrest, Yang, who is also the former vice mayor of Tianjin, was still supervising the rescue work after the expositions. Authorities have not said whether his detention is related to the blasts.

The People's Daily, the party's paramount mouthpiece, compared the incident to former anti-corruption cases in an editorial (link in Chinese) on Aug. 17:

“We have investigated thoroughly and handled publicly in big cases on Zhou Yongkang, Xu Caihou, Guo Boxiong, and Ling Jihua [four fallen high-rank officials amid President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign]. Is it necessary for us to conceal a safety accident? How can officials cover up one another?”

As more details of the Tianjin blasts have come to light, there are signs that China's top leadership is furious. Xi's anti-corruption campaign is being thwarted by forces within China, according to an editorial (link in Chinese) carried by state media August 20 under a pen name.  "The scale of the resistance is beyond what could have been imagined."

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